Q.10. Critically analyse India’s evolving diplomatic, economic and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) highlighting their increasing significance in regional and global geopolitics. [UPSC 2024 GS P-2]

India’s evolving diplomatic, economic, and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs)—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—are gaining importance due to both regional and global geopolitical shifts. The CARs hold increasing significance for India in terms of energy security, counterterrorism, trade connectivity, and as part of its larger strategic interests in the Eurasian region. However, there are also considerable challenges due to the growing presence of other powers like China and Russia, and logistical issues related to connectivity.

1. Diplomatic Relations

India’s diplomatic relations with the CARs date back to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when these republics gained independence. Over the past three decades, India has gradually increased its engagement with Central Asia, marked by high-level visits and various bilateral agreements.

Key Diplomatic Initiatives

India-Central Asia Dialogue: Initiated in 2019, this platform fosters political, economic, and cultural cooperation. The dialogue serves as a critical forum for India to engage the CARs collectively, discussing common concerns like regional security, terrorism, and economic cooperation.
Extended Neighbourhood Policy: India considers Central Asia as part of its “extended neighborhood,” focusing on building stronger relationships through diplomacy, culture, and trade.
International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC): Though not exclusive to the CARs, the INSTC is a critical project that aims to enhance connectivity between India, Iran, Russia, and Central Asia. It bypasses Pakistan, which has historically impeded India’s direct access to the region.

Strategic Importance

Central Asia is geographically situated at the crossroads of major powers—Russia, China, and Europe—making it a vital region in global diplomacy. For India, Central Asia is also critical due to its proximity to Afghanistan, a region of strategic interest, especially in the context of post-US withdrawal and the rise of the Taliban.
Security Cooperation: India and CARs share concerns over radicalization, terrorism, and drug trafficking, particularly emanating from Afghanistan. Tajikistan, with its geographical proximity to Afghanistan, has become a focal point for India’s counterterrorism efforts. India’s military presence at the Farkhor Air Base in Tajikistan underscores its strategic interests.

2. Economic Relations

Economic relations between India and the CARs are underdeveloped relative to their potential, largely due to connectivity challenges and the overwhelming influence of China and Russia in the region. However, energy cooperation and trade diversification are becoming key drivers of India’s economic engagement with Central Asia.

Energy Security

Central Asia is rich in natural resources, particularly oil, natural gas, and uranium, which are crucial for India’s growing energy needs.
- Kazakhstan is one of the world’s largest producers of uranium and a key supplier for India’s civilian nuclear program under the India-Kazakhstan civil nuclear cooperation agreement.
- Turkmenistan plays a significant role in India’s energy strategy through the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project. While this project holds great potential, its progress has been slow due to security concerns in Afghanistan and the Pakistan factor.

Trade and Investment

Trade volume between India and the CARs remains modest, primarily due to connectivity barriers and competition from China. India’s Chabahar Port in Iran is a vital project to improve connectivity with Central Asia by bypassing Pakistan. Chabahar offers an alternative route for goods to flow between India and the CARs, linking the INSTC with Central Asian markets.
India has invested in infrastructure projects in Central Asia, including power plants and IT infrastructure. For instance, India has offered assistance to Uzbekistan in setting up Information Technology (IT) parks and training its professionals in software development.

3. Strategic Relations

India’s strategic interests in Central Asia are multifaceted, including countering China’s growing influence under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), maintaining regional stability, and fostering greater cooperation with Russia and other stakeholders in Central Asia.

Geopolitical Competition with China

China has significantly increased its influence in Central Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with massive investments in infrastructure, energy, and connectivity projects across the region. The CARs view China as a key economic partner, but concerns over Chinese economic dominance and debt-trap diplomacy have provided India with an opportunity to offer an alternative.
India’s Role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): India’s full membership in the SCO since 2017 has allowed it to increase its strategic engagement with Central Asia. Through the SCO, India participates in regional security dialogues, especially concerning terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking. However, the presence of both China and Pakistan in the SCO limits India’s ability to fully capitalize on this forum.

Engagement with Russia

Russia remains a dominant player in Central Asia, with historical ties, military cooperation, and economic influence. India’s relations with Russia complement its engagement with Central Asia, as both countries share concerns over rising extremism, regional instability, and China’s increasing economic influence.
The India-Russia Strategic Partnership provides a platform for greater trilateral cooperation in Central Asia, focusing on connectivity, energy, and security.

Security Concerns

With Afghanistan’s uncertain future after the US withdrawal, India is keen on enhancing its security partnerships with Central Asian countries, particularly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, to curb the spread of terrorism and instability in the region. Central Asia’s proximity to Afghanistan makes it a critical buffer zone in managing the potential spillover of radicalism and instability from Afghanistan into the region.

4. Increasing Significance in Regional and Global Geopolitics

The strategic relevance of Central Asia is rising due to its location at the intersection of major geopolitical rivalries and its abundant natural resources. India’s evolving relations with the CARs are thus critical for both regional and global geopolitics.

Regional Geopolitics

Central Asia as a Battleground for Influence: The region has become a geopolitical arena where China, Russia, the US, and India compete for influence. China’s growing economic presence, Russia’s historical dominance, and India’s strategic interests are all shaping the future of Central Asia.
Energy Diplomacy: Central Asia’s vast energy resources make it a critical region for global energy markets. India, as an energy-deficient country, seeks access to the region’s oil, gas, and uranium reserves to ensure its energy security. This has made India a key player in the global competition for energy resources in Central Asia.

Global Geopolitics

Central Asia’s Role in the Indo-Pacific Strategy: While not traditionally part of the Indo-Pacific, the strategic convergence between Central Asia and South Asia is growing in importance. India’s engagement with Central Asia complements its broader Indo-Pacific strategy by providing additional energy routes and security cooperation in an extended neighborhood.
Counterterrorism and Security Cooperation: The rise of terrorism and extremism in Afghanistan poses a direct threat to the stability of Central Asia. This has made the region a focal point for global counterterrorism efforts, where India plays a significant role through its security and intelligence partnerships with the CARs.

Challenges in India-Central Asia Relations

Connectivity and Geopolitical Constraints
- Lack of direct land access to Central Asia due to Pakistan’s refusal to allow transit routes for Indian goods has been a major hurdle. India’s reliance on alternative routes like the Chabahar Port and the INSTC has limitations, particularly in terms of cost and time efficiency.
China’s Dominance
- China’s deep economic engagement in the region, particularly through the BRI, poses significant competition for India. The CARs are more integrated with China in terms of trade, investment, and infrastructure, which limits India’s ability to influence the region’s economic landscape.
Russia’s Pivotal Role
- Although India shares close ties with Russia, the CARs remain heavily dependent on Russia for military and economic support. Russia’s dominant position in the region’s security architecture, such as through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), limits India’s scope for independent strategic influence.

Conclusion

India’s relations with the Central Asian Republics are evolving within a complex web of economic, diplomatic, and strategic factors. While India’s engagement with the CARs has deepened over time, especially through energy cooperation, security partnerships, and multilateral platforms like the SCO, significant challenges remain. India’s growing role in Central Asia highlights the region’s increasing significance in both regional and global geopolitics, with energy security, counterterrorism, and connectivity being key drivers. However, the competition with China and the constraints posed by geography and regional dynamics continue to shape India’s strategic calculus in Central Asia.

International Relations, UPSC